Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Dowd wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 53.3% vs Hertl 52.3% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 77.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 79.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 51.8%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Dowd
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Dowd
Hertl
Last 10: Dowd 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Dowd
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
0
Dowd
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Dowd
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (771)
51.6% (1,084)
+3.8%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
61.0% (246)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (165)
44.1% (136)
+1.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Dowd shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Dowd
Hertl
Home
58.2% (462)
55.2% (696)
Away
49.3% (481)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Dowd
Hertl
P1
55.6%
55.4%
P2
50.5%
54.8%
P3
53.9%
48.9%
OT
75.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.1%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2022 | 2 | 15:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 2 | 11:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 1 | 09:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 1 | 09:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 1 | 04:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 16:57 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 15:10 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 11:31 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 05:37 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 11:07 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 1 | 02:48 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 1 | 02:33 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |