Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.9% vs Hertl 55.4% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 94.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 75.2%
Neutral zone
Dowd 51.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 63.9%
36.1%
63.9%
Dowd
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Dowd
Hertl
Last 10: Dowd 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
6
Dowd
Hertl
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
5
0
Dowd
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Dowd
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (835)
54.1% (717)
-1.9%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
61.9% (210)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (350)
58.1% (31)
-14.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Dowd shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Dowd
Hertl
Home
51.5% (619)
58.1% (492)
Away
48.1% (576)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Dowd
Hertl
P1
51.7%
57.1%
P2
51.6%
54.0%
P3
47.0%
56.6%
OT
22.2%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.1%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | 3 | 18:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 3 | 17:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 1 | 10:35 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 10:45 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 05:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 01:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 14:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 10:40 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 16:44 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 08:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 08:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 04:54 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 01:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |