Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (95% H2H, 19 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Hertl 54.2% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 27-15 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 85.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 90.0%
Neutral zone
Dowd 65.4%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Dowd
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
27
(42 meetings)
15
27
Dowd
Hertl
Last 10: Dowd 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
18
Dowd
Hertl
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
12
3
Dowd
Hertl
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
6
Dowd
Hertl
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
53.8% (8,268)
-1.4%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
59.3% (1,975)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
46.3% (806)
-2.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Dowd shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Dowd
Hertl
Home
51.9% (3,897)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Dowd
Hertl
P1
51.7%
53.6%
P2
50.4%
54.1%
P3
50.3%
55.3%
OT
45.9%
46.5%
Final 5 min
50.5%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 18:22 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 17:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 16:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 15:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 10:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 3 | 18:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 3 | 17:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 1 | 10:35 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 10:45 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 05:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 01:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 14:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 10:40 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 16:44 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 08:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 08:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 04:54 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 01:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 17:30 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 12:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |