Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Hertl 57.2% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 86.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 89.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 50.6%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Dowd
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Dowd
Hertl
Last 5: Dowd 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Dowd
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
1
Dowd
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
58.1% (823)
-6.4%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
56.2% (265)
-56.2%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
62.9% (35)
-21.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +56.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Dowd shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Dowd
Hertl
Home
48.6% (451)
59.7% (561)
Away
49.5% (416)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Dowd
Hertl
P1
49.1%
51.6%
P2
47.3%
63.8%
P3
51.4%
58.6%
OT
30.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
52.1%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 18:22 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 17:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 16:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 15:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 10:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |