Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Seguin 54.2% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 94.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 65.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 50.5%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 58.3%
41.7%
58.3%
Dowd
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Dowd
Seguin
Last 5: Dowd 3-2 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
2
Dowd
Seguin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
0
Dowd
Seguin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (625)
55.0% (713)
+0.2%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
56.7% (104)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (220)
47.2% (53)
-9.0%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Dowd is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Dowd shoots right. Seguin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Home / Away
Dowd
Seguin
Home
53.7% (445)
56.2% (443)
Away
47.7% (407)
53.2% (427)
By Period
Dowd
Seguin
P1
48.8%
54.2%
P2
49.3%
52.9%
P3
54.0%
57.1%
OT
44.4%
60.0%
Final 5 min
49.8%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 19:47 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 19:42 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 04:59 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 10:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 13:32 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |