Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.3% vs Seguin 55.4% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 73.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 79.1%
Neutral zone
Dowd 65.7%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Dowd
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Dowd
Seguin
Last 6: Dowd 1-5 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
3
Dowd
Seguin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Seguin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
2
Dowd
Seguin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (778)
56.9% (478)
-7.7%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
57.4% (54)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (234)
51.3% (76)
-7.3%
On even strength, Seguin has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Dowd is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Dowd shoots right. Seguin is 60.7% vs right-shot opponents (135).
Home / Away
Dowd
Seguin
Home
46.3% (492)
57.4% (317)
Away
49.8% (532)
55.0% (291)
By Period
Dowd
Seguin
P1
49.1%
50.3%
P2
48.2%
60.4%
P3
46.9%
58.0%
OT
71.4%
57.1%
Final 5 min
45.7%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 19:55 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 06:49 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 09:40 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 11:21 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 07:14 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |