Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.3% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 55.9% vs Bjugstad 48.0% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 84.0%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 91.6%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 85.9%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 85.5%
85.5%
14.5%
Kastelic
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Kastelic
Bjugstad
Last 5: Kastelic 5-0 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
4
0
Kastelic
Bjugstad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (476)
49.4% (867)
+8.6%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
56.0% (25)
+19.0%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (106)
40.7% (216)
+10.2%
On power play, Kastelic has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Kastelic is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (199).
Kastelic shoots right. Bjugstad is 41.3% vs right-shot opponents (312).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Bjugstad
Home
64.9% (265)
46.5% (480)
Away
50.5% (325)
48.9% (628)
By Period
Kastelic
Bjugstad
P1
58.5%
48.7%
P2
55.6%
45.6%
P3
56.8%
49.1%
Final 5 min
62.6%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 05:39 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 02:20 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 03:53 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 03:47 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |