Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (61% H2H, 43 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 48.9% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 52-51 in 103 meetings
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 51.2%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 51.7%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 55.6%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
51
-
52
(103 meetings)
51
52
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
Last 10: Bjugstad 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
17
26
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
43 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
20
13
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
33 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
14
13
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
27 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (6,634)
56.2% (15,260)
-7.6%
Power Play
55.2% (829)
58.8% (3,445)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (614)
51.4% (2,811)
-7.1%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,747).
Bjugstad shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
Home
49.8% (4,020)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
48.1% (4,057)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
P1
49.0%
55.6%
P2
49.1%
57.0%
P3
48.4%
55.1%
OT
61.3%
62.2%
Final 5 min
47.3%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 04:54 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 03:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 10:08 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 07:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 06:49 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 00:39 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 04:07 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 01:02 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 12:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 07:48 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 05:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 19:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 17:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 13:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 14:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |