Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on defensive-zone draws (81% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.3% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Bjugstad leads 21-14 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 94.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 53.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 78.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 71.3%
28.7%
71.3%
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
14
(35 meetings)
21
14
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
Last 10: Bjugstad 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
9
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
13
3
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
7
2
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (906)
55.0% (1,084)
-4.3%
Power Play
48.1% (108)
56.8% (303)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (239)
40.3% (149)
+4.1%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (906).
Bjugstad shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
Home
49.8% (643)
54.8% (759)
Away
48.7% (610)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
P1
49.4%
55.3%
P2
50.5%
51.9%
P3
47.9%
54.2%
OT
50.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
48.2%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 03:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 10:08 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 07:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 06:49 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 00:39 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 04:07 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 01:02 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 12:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 07:48 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 05:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 19:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 17:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 13:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 14:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 12:35 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |