Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 48.0% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 73.8%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 82.4%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 77.6%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 76.7%
76.7%
23.3%
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
9
(10 meetings)
1
9
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
Last 10: Bjugstad 1-9 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
5
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (867)
56.1% (690)
-6.7%
Power Play
56.0% (25)
64.6% (96)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
40.7% (216)
45.9% (109)
-5.2%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (796).
Bjugstad shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
Home
46.5% (480)
58.3% (408)
Away
48.9% (628)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
P1
48.7%
57.7%
P2
45.6%
54.8%
P3
49.1%
55.2%
OT
50.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
45.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 19:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 19:03 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 17:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 17:20 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 15:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 12:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 19:48 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 17:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |