Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Bjugstad wins 54.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 53.8% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 50.9%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 61.9%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 60.1%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
Last 8: Bjugstad 3-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
4
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (245)
56.6% (1,064)
-0.7%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
60.4% (260)
-60.4%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
54.0% (261)
+3.1%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +60.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Bjugstad is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (198).
Bjugstad shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
Home
53.2% (111)
54.9% (801)
Away
56.9% (144)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Bjugstad
O'Reilly
P1
44.6%
58.0%
P2
61.4%
56.7%
P3
61.3%
55.4%
Final 5 min
50.8%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 14:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 03:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 3 | 18:45 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 3 | 18:41 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 3 | 02:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 3 | 02:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 2 | 07:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 07:48 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |