Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bjugstad wins 41.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 48.0% vs Stamkos 53.4% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 52.1%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 88.5%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 73.2%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Bjugstad
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Bjugstad
Stamkos
Last 5: Bjugstad 1-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Bjugstad
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Bjugstad
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (867)
55.3% (628)
-5.9%
Power Play
56.0% (25)
55.1% (216)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
40.7% (216)
40.2% (87)
+0.5%
On even strength, Stamkos has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Bjugstad is 41.3% vs right-shot opponents (312).
Bjugstad shoots right. Stamkos is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Stamkos
Home
46.5% (480)
55.5% (499)
Away
48.9% (628)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Bjugstad
Stamkos
P1
48.7%
50.7%
P2
45.6%
53.8%
P3
49.1%
55.9%
OT
50.0%
87.5%
Final 5 min
45.0%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 09:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 10:44 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 04:50 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |