Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.3% vs Stamkos 55.2% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 92.4%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 64.8%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 86.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 69.2%
30.8%
69.2%
Bjugstad
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Bjugstad
Stamkos
Last 5: Bjugstad 4-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
4
0
Bjugstad
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Bjugstad
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (906)
55.9% (499)
-5.2%
Power Play
48.1% (108)
56.3% (126)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (239)
58.3% (12)
-13.9%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Bjugstad is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (347).
Bjugstad shoots right. Stamkos is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (151).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Stamkos
Home
49.8% (643)
55.3% (349)
Away
48.7% (610)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Bjugstad
Stamkos
P1
49.4%
57.0%
P2
50.5%
59.2%
P3
47.9%
51.5%
OT
50.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
48.2%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 01:16 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 13:04 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 12:10 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 15:10 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 11:55 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |