Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bjugstad wins 41.3% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 48.0% vs Seguin 54.2% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 76.3%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 71.6%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 54.6%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 58.0%
58.0%
42.0%
Bjugstad
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Bjugstad
Seguin
Last 6: Bjugstad 3-3 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Bjugstad
Seguin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
2
Bjugstad
Seguin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
2
0
Bjugstad
Seguin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (867)
55.0% (713)
-5.6%
Power Play
56.0% (25)
56.7% (104)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
40.7% (216)
47.2% (53)
-6.5%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Bjugstad is 41.3% vs right-shot opponents (312).
Bjugstad shoots right. Seguin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Seguin
Home
46.5% (480)
56.2% (443)
Away
48.9% (628)
53.2% (427)
By Period
Bjugstad
Seguin
P1
48.7%
54.2%
P2
45.6%
52.9%
P3
49.1%
57.1%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
45.0%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 01:19 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 06:18 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 09:53 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 04:07 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 01:27 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |