Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.3% vs Seguin 55.4% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 50.8%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 68.7%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 51.4%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 61.8%
61.8%
38.2%
Bjugstad
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Bjugstad
Seguin
Last 5: Bjugstad 2-3 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
2
1
Bjugstad
Seguin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
2
Bjugstad
Seguin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (906)
56.9% (478)
-6.2%
Power Play
48.1% (108)
57.4% (54)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (239)
51.3% (76)
-6.9%
On power play, Seguin has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Bjugstad is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (347).
Bjugstad shoots right. Seguin is 60.7% vs right-shot opponents (135).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Seguin
Home
49.8% (643)
57.4% (317)
Away
48.7% (610)
55.0% (291)
By Period
Bjugstad
Seguin
P1
49.4%
50.3%
P2
50.5%
60.4%
P3
47.9%
58.0%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
48.2%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.2%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2024 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 3 | 11:20 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 1 | 01:38 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |