Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Foligno 49.8% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 71.1%
Defensive zone
Foligno 61.2%
Neutral zone
McDavid 55.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 71.1%
71.1%
28.9%
McDavid
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
McDavid
Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
McDavid
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
49.0% (261)
-1.5%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
57.1% (42)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
47.1% (51)
-0.6%
On power play, Foligno has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Foligno is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
McDavid
Foligno
Home
50.2% (400)
48.9% (178)
Away
44.7% (365)
50.6% (176)
By Period
McDavid
Foligno
P1
47.5%
40.4%
P2
48.6%
55.8%
P3
46.7%
51.2%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.3%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |