Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Frost wins 57.1% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs Foligno 49.8% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 95.0%
Defensive zone
Frost 57.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 81.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 87.5%
87.5%
12.5%
Frost
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Frost
Foligno
Last 5: Frost 4-1 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
4
0
Frost
Foligno
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Frost
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (686)
49.0% (261)
+6.0%
Power Play
60.8% (166)
57.1% (42)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
47.1% (51)
+52.9%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +52.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Frost is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Frost shoots left. Foligno is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Frost
Foligno
Home
56.1% (428)
48.9% (178)
Away
56.6% (429)
50.6% (176)
By Period
Frost
Foligno
P1
58.9%
40.4%
P2
55.4%
55.8%
P3
54.1%
51.2%
OT
70.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.7%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
66.0%▲
60.0%
56.4%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 01:23 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 02:39 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 12:49 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 17:46 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |