Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Foligno wins 56.4% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 52.0% vs Paul 53.9% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 52.1%
Defensive zone
Paul 78.3%
Neutral zone
Paul 59.7%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 71.7%
28.3%
71.7%
Foligno
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Foligno
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
0
Foligno
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
2
1
Foligno
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (249)
53.1% (710)
+0.3%
Power Play
53.2% (154)
57.3% (199)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (32)
58.0% (69)
-17.4%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Foligno is 56.4% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Foligno shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Foligno
Paul
Home
57.3% (225)
56.0% (466)
Away
47.1% (210)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Foligno
Paul
P1
53.0%
57.2%
P2
51.8%
54.9%
P3
52.6%
51.5%
Final 5 min
53.3%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
52.4%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 06:44 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 19:56 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 08:35 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 13:35 | Defensive | Nick Paul |