Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Foligno wins 44.4% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 49.8% vs Roy 51.9% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 55.2%
Defensive zone
Roy 56.5%
Neutral zone
Roy 51.5%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Foligno
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Foligno
Roy
Last 8: Foligno 4-4 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Foligno
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Foligno
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Foligno
Roy
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (261)
51.9% (547)
-2.9%
Power Play
57.1% (42)
54.1% (37)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (51)
53.3% (92)
-6.2%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Foligno is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Foligno shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Home / Away
Foligno
Roy
Home
48.9% (178)
54.0% (328)
Away
50.6% (176)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Foligno
Roy
P1
40.4%
53.5%
P2
55.8%
51.6%
P3
51.2%
51.6%
Final 5 min
53.8%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 14:49 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 14:27 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 11:24 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 03:45 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:10 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 03:45 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |