Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.6% vs 48.4%). Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Foligno wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 48.6% vs Roy 48.4% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Foligno leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Foligno 76.5%
Defensive zone
Roy 65.5%
Neutral zone
Foligno 53.1%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Foligno
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
6
(15 meetings)
9
6
Foligno
Roy
Last 10: Foligno 6-4 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
3
1
Foligno
Roy
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Foligno
Roy
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
3
2
Foligno
Roy
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (2,810)
48.7% (3,719)
-0.4%
Power Play
52.3% (730)
49.5% (283)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (455)
45.5% (477)
-1.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Foligno is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,501).
Foligno shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Home / Away
Foligno
Roy
Home
49.9% (2,013)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
47.2% (1,984)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Foligno
Roy
P1
47.6%
50.8%
P2
50.4%
46.3%
P3
48.3%
48.1%
OT
29.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.6%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 14:49 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 14:27 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 11:24 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 03:45 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:10 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 03:45 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 13:56 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:55 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 3 | 18:00 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 3 | 14:08 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 3 | 05:19 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 1 | 18:12 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:58 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |