Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.6% vs 54.8%). Foligno wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 52.3% vs Hertl 54.5% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 50.4%
Defensive zone
Foligno 71.7%
Neutral zone
Foligno 58.9%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 58.9%
58.9%
41.1%
Foligno
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Foligno
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Foligno
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.0% (50)
54.1% (1,117)
-2.1%
Power Play
66.7% (21)
59.8% (296)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
34.4% (32)
-34.4%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +34.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Foligno is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (40).
Foligno shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Foligno
Hertl
Home
51.2% (41)
54.3% (709)
Away
61.3% (31)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Foligno
Hertl
P1
55.6%
51.6%
P2
48.0%
53.6%
P3
65.0%
58.6%
Final 5 min
81.3%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
55.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 02:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |