Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Foligno wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 49.8% vs Hertl 57.2% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 72.3%
Defensive zone
Foligno 78.8%
Neutral zone
Foligno 52.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 72.3%
27.7%
72.3%
Foligno
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Foligno
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Foligno
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (261)
58.1% (823)
-9.1%
Power Play
57.1% (42)
56.2% (265)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (51)
62.9% (35)
-15.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Foligno is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (192).
Foligno shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Foligno
Hertl
Home
48.9% (178)
59.7% (561)
Away
50.6% (176)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Foligno
Hertl
P1
40.4%
51.6%
P2
55.8%
63.8%
P3
51.2%
58.6%
OT
33.3%
28.6%
Final 5 min
53.8%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 08:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |