Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 48.6% vs Hertl 55.4% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 74.0%
Defensive zone
Foligno 72.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 53.2%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
Foligno
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Foligno
Hertl
Last 10: Foligno 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Foligno
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
6
1
Foligno
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Foligno
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (495)
54.1% (717)
-5.4%
Power Play
56.9% (65)
61.9% (210)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (144)
58.1% (31)
-14.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Foligno is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Foligno shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Foligno
Hertl
Home
49.6% (359)
58.1% (492)
Away
47.2% (345)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Foligno
Hertl
P1
46.7%
57.1%
P2
52.7%
54.0%
P3
46.7%
56.6%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
55.8%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 15:50 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 12:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 12:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 10:27 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:40 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:27 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 15:04 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 05:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:16 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:04 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 14:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |