Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 48.6% vs Karlsson 57.1% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 89.3%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 61.9%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 76.1%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 71.1%
28.9%
71.1%
Foligno
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Foligno
Karlsson
Last 6: Foligno 4-2 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
2
Foligno
Karlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
4
0
Foligno
Karlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (495)
58.6% (597)
-9.9%
Power Play
56.9% (65)
57.9% (57)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (144)
51.9% (52)
-8.1%
On even strength, Karlsson has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Foligno is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Foligno shoots left. Karlsson is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Home / Away
Foligno
Karlsson
Home
49.6% (359)
59.6% (344)
Away
47.2% (345)
56.6% (362)
By Period
Foligno
Karlsson
P1
46.7%
53.1%
P2
52.7%
62.1%
P3
46.7%
60.1%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.8%
61.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2025 | 3 | 16:02 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 3 | 15:57 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 06:31 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 06:19 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 09:40 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:53 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |