Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Foligno wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 49.8% vs Gourde 46.0% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 66.6%
Defensive zone
Foligno 59.0%
Neutral zone
Foligno 53.8%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Foligno
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Foligno
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
0
Foligno
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (261)
47.2% (654)
+1.8%
Power Play
57.1% (42)
45.0% (20)
+12.1%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (51)
32.2% (87)
+14.9%
On penalty kill, Foligno has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Foligno is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (192).
Foligno shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
Foligno
Gourde
Home
48.9% (178)
44.1% (322)
Away
50.6% (176)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Foligno
Gourde
P1
40.4%
42.4%
P2
55.8%
49.8%
P3
51.2%
44.3%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 10:41 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |