Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.6% vs 48.2%). Look for Gourde on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 48.6% vs Gourde 48.2% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Foligno 67.4%
Defensive zone
Gourde 67.5%
Neutral zone
Gourde 50.8%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
Foligno
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
Foligno
Gourde
Last 10: Foligno 4-6 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
2
3
Foligno
Gourde
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
3
Foligno
Gourde
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Foligno
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (2,810)
48.4% (4,954)
-0.1%
Power Play
52.3% (730)
57.4% (376)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (455)
39.9% (554)
+4.1%
On power play, Gourde has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Foligno is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,496).
Foligno shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,946).
Home / Away
Foligno
Gourde
Home
49.9% (2,013)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
47.2% (1,984)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Foligno
Gourde
P1
47.6%
49.9%
P2
50.4%
47.4%
P3
48.3%
47.5%
OT
29.7%
37.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.6%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 10:41 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 2 | 07:47 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 13:17 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:34 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 3 | 03:48 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 1 | 19:42 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 6, 2021 | 2 | 13:28 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 1, 2021 | 3 | 10:54 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 2 | 12:57 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 31, 2017 | 2 | 05:21 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 4, 2017 | 3 | 07:03 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 4, 2017 | 2 | 01:30 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |