Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.0% vs Paul 53.3% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 90.7%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 58.7%
Neutral zone
Paul 56.0%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 62.6%
37.4%
62.6%
Lizotte
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Lizotte
Paul
Last 6: Lizotte 4-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Lizotte
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
2
0
Lizotte
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
2
0
Lizotte
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (342)
53.2% (327)
-0.3%
Power Play
25.0% (4)
61.4% (57)
-36.4%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (130)
50.0% (32)
-6.9%
On power play, Paul has a +36.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Lizotte is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Lizotte shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Paul
Home
44.2% (242)
54.6% (183)
Away
56.0% (234)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Lizotte
Paul
P1
49.6%
56.3%
P2
46.9%
54.8%
P3
52.6%
52.4%
OT
100.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
48.0%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.0%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:15 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 19:36 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:14 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 06:12 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |