Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cizikas wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 53.0% vs Paul 53.6% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 55.0%
Defensive zone
Cizikas 60.8%
Neutral zone
Cizikas 61.6%
Result
Casey Cizikas favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Cizikas
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Cizikas
Paul
Last 8: Cizikas 3-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
4
Cizikas
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cizikas
3
1
Cizikas
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (512)
53.8% (318)
-0.1%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
61.4% (57)
+38.6%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (42)
50.0% (32)
-2.4%
On power play, Cizikas has a +38.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Cizikas is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (379).
Cizikas shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (297).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Paul
Home
51.9% (258)
54.6% (183)
Away
54.8% (299)
54.5% (224)
By Period
Cizikas
Paul
P1
56.0%
57.0%
P2
55.1%
56.2%
P3
50.0%
51.7%
OT
33.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
48.3%
60.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
52.0%▼
60.5%
53.5%
Paul
58.0%▲
54.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 08:09 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 05:13 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 01:22 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 16:44 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 11:07 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 05:58 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 12:38 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 06:49 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |