Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Paul 53.9% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 64.3%
Defensive zone
Paul 66.0%
Neutral zone
Paul 66.2%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 65.5%
34.5%
65.5%
Larkin
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
9
(13 meetings)
4
9
Larkin
Paul
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
4
Larkin
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Paul
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Larkin
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
53.1% (710)
+2.8%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
57.3% (199)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
58.0% (69)
-11.8%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Larkin
Paul
Home
56.0% (654)
56.0% (466)
Away
54.8% (639)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Larkin
Paul
P1
54.4%
57.2%
P2
55.9%
54.9%
P3
55.2%
51.5%
OT
64.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3 | 04:11 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 19:48 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 13:58 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 07:46 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 04:58 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 04:20 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 13:35 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:53 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 16:54 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 08:03 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 02:57 | Defensive | Nick Paul |