Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Rodrigues on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Rodrigues wins 42.6% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.3% vs Paul 50.0% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 60.1%
Defensive zone
Paul 80.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 58.6%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 67.7%
32.3%
67.7%
Rodrigues
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Rodrigues
Paul
Last 7: Rodrigues 5-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
1
Rodrigues
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Rodrigues
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (250)
48.8% (666)
-3.2%
Power Play
40.0% (30)
53.8% (65)
-13.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
60.0% (55)
-10.0%
On power play, Paul has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Rodrigues is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (223).
Rodrigues shoots right. Paul is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Paul
Home
46.5% (142)
49.7% (348)
Away
43.6% (140)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Rodrigues
Paul
P1
42.9%
51.0%
P2
50.0%
47.4%
P3
42.4%
51.5%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
45.5%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
45.0%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 12:49 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 05:03 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 18:26 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 03:33 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 13:54 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 07:41 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |