Scouting Report
Leon Draisaitl holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Draisaitl 54.0% vs Paul 50.0% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 65.2%
Defensive zone
Paul 87.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 74.5%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 76.9%
23.1%
76.9%
Draisaitl
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Draisaitl
Paul
Last 9: Draisaitl 1-8 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Draisaitl
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
3
Draisaitl
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Draisaitl
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Draisaitl
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (923)
48.8% (666)
+4.9%
Power Play
56.1% (244)
53.8% (65)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
58.6% (29)
60.0% (55)
-1.4%
On even strength, Draisaitl has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Draisaitl is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Draisaitl shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Home / Away
Draisaitl
Paul
Home
55.2% (636)
49.7% (348)
Away
53.4% (560)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Draisaitl
Paul
P1
50.8%
51.0%
P2
56.6%
47.4%
P3
54.0%
51.5%
OT
67.9%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
54.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 09:50 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 17:46 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 08:18 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 19:05 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 06:59 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |