Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.9% vs 52.1%). Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 51.7% vs Paul 51.7% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 57.1%
Defensive zone
Paul 64.0%
Neutral zone
Backlund 52.9%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Backlund
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
8
(20 meetings)
12
8
Backlund
Paul
Last 10: Backlund 6-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Backlund
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
0
Backlund
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
8
5
Backlund
Paul
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (602)
56.2% (274)
-3.0%
Power Play
56.1% (66)
52.9% (17)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (77)
43.4% (129)
-4.4%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Backlund is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (521).
Backlund shoots left. Paul is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (283).
Home / Away
Backlund
Paul
Home
51.5% (400)
52.3% (235)
Away
52.5% (345)
51.9% (185)
By Period
Backlund
Paul
P1
50.0%
53.2%
P2
56.4%
53.8%
P3
48.9%
49.3%
OT
33.3%
55.6%
Final 5 min
51.8%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
51.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2021 | 1 | 15:14 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 17:24 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 7, 2021 | 2 | 06:49 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 2 | 04:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 2 | 04:39 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 2 | 00:07 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 1 | 11:56 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 2 | 10:31 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 1 | 07:31 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 3 | 12:54 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 3 | 10:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 2 | 05:11 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 1 | 16:50 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 1 | 08:28 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 1 | 04:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 3 | 17:33 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |