Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Paul 53.4% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 83.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 75.1%
Neutral zone
Dowd 64.0%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Dowd
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Dowd
Paul
Last 5: Dowd 1-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Dowd
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Dowd
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (625)
53.8% (753)
+1.4%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
58.9% (90)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (220)
47.4% (78)
-9.2%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Dowd shoots right. Paul is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (342).
Home / Away
Dowd
Paul
Home
53.7% (445)
54.2% (450)
Away
47.7% (407)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Dowd
Paul
P1
48.8%
58.2%
P2
49.3%
50.6%
P3
54.0%
52.9%
OT
44.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.8%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 16:28 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 13, 2022 | 3 | 05:03 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 09:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 07:59 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 09:56 | Neutral | Nick Paul |