Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Paul wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Holmberg shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.9% vs Holmberg 47.5% (+8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 71.1%
Defensive zone
Paul 57.3%
Neutral zone
Paul 71.5%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 68.4%
68.4%
31.6%
Paul
Holmberg
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Paul
Holmberg
Last 5: Paul 3-2 Holmberg
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Paul
Holmberg
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Holmberg
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Holmberg
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (710)
45.7% (175)
+7.4%
Power Play
57.3% (199)
75.0% (8)
-17.7%
Penalty Kill
58.0% (69)
40.0% (20)
+18.0%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Holmberg shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Paul shoots left. Holmberg is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (134).
Home / Away
Paul
Holmberg
Home
56.0% (466)
50.9% (112)
Away
52.7% (512)
40.7% (91)
By Period
Paul
Holmberg
P1
57.2%
47.1%
P2
54.9%
45.7%
P3
51.5%
46.2%
Final 5 min
52.3%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
54.3%
Holmberg
40.0%▼
45.5%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 15:17 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 08:41 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 3 | 04:57 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 2 | 12:35 | Offensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 2 | 09:33 | Offensive | Pontus Holmberg |