Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Holmberg shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Holmberg 46.2% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 72.2%
Defensive zone
Paul 83.1%
Neutral zone
Paul 82.1%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 78.8%
78.8%
21.2%
Paul
Holmberg
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Paul
Holmberg
Last 10: Paul 6-4 Holmberg
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
3
2
Paul
Holmberg
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
4
2
Paul
Holmberg
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Paul
Holmberg
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Holmberg
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,796)
45.5% (673)
+7.0%
Power Play
56.5% (480)
52.4% (21)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (574)
45.9% (61)
+0.8%
On even strength, Paul has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Holmberg shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Paul shoots left. Holmberg is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (507).
Home / Away
Paul
Holmberg
Home
52.7% (2,412)
46.7% (418)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
44.5% (337)
By Period
Paul
Holmberg
P1
53.9%
53.5%
P2
51.0%
41.1%
P3
52.0%
42.5%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Holmberg
40.0%▼
46.5%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 11:53 | Neutral | Pontus Holmberg |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 05:57 | Defensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 03:16 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 3 | 14:31 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 15:17 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 08:41 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 3 | 04:57 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 2 | 12:35 | Offensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 2 | 09:33 | Offensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 11:35 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 2 | 07:51 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 08:12 | Defensive | Nick Paul |