Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Holmberg on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 50.0% vs Holmberg 49.1% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Holmberg 54.0%
Defensive zone
Holmberg 51.6%
Neutral zone
Holmberg 56.1%
Result
Pontus Holmberg favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Paul
Holmberg
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Paul
Holmberg
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Holmberg
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Holmberg
1
2
Paul
Holmberg
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Holmberg
0
1
Paul
Holmberg
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Holmberg
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (666)
49.0% (245)
-0.2%
Power Play
53.8% (65)
33.3% (3)
+20.5%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (55)
48.6% (37)
+11.4%
On power play, Paul has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Holmberg shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Paul shoots left. Holmberg is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Paul
Holmberg
Home
49.7% (348)
50.3% (147)
Away
50.2% (438)
47.1% (138)
By Period
Paul
Holmberg
P1
51.0%
59.2%
P2
47.4%
40.0%
P3
51.5%
46.9%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Holmberg
40.0%▼
46.5%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 11:53 | Neutral | Pontus Holmberg |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 05:57 | Defensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 03:16 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 3 | 14:31 | Offensive | Nick Paul |