Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Paul wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.4% vs McLeod 48.4% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 60.3%
Defensive zone
McLeod 64.5%
Neutral zone
McLeod 64.2%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 63.6%
36.4%
63.6%
Paul
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Paul
McLeod
Last 6: Paul 2-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Paul
McLeod
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
McLeod
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
3
Paul
McLeod
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (753)
49.0% (500)
+4.8%
Power Play
58.9% (90)
43.8% (48)
+15.1%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (78)
44.0% (50)
+3.4%
On power play, Paul has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Paul shoots left. McLeod is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (370).
Home / Away
Paul
McLeod
Home
54.2% (450)
50.9% (291)
Away
53.3% (471)
45.6% (307)
By Period
Paul
McLeod
P1
58.2%
44.3%
P2
50.6%
52.4%
P3
52.9%
47.8%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
49.6%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2023 | 3 | 19:46 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 3 | 19:38 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 3 | 17:48 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 2 | 07:51 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 1 | 05:33 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |