Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Paul wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.9% vs McLeod 50.7% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 69.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 67.8%
Neutral zone
Paul 68.0%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 68.5%
68.5%
31.5%
Paul
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Paul
McLeod
Last 8: Paul 6-2 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
1
Paul
McLeod
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
0
Paul
McLeod
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
2
1
Paul
McLeod
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (710)
51.3% (628)
+1.8%
Power Play
57.3% (199)
68.3% (41)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
58.0% (69)
30.6% (49)
+27.4%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +27.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Paul shoots left. McLeod is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (507).
Home / Away
Paul
McLeod
Home
56.0% (466)
51.5% (394)
Away
52.7% (512)
50.0% (324)
By Period
Paul
McLeod
P1
57.2%
51.5%
P2
54.9%
47.0%
P3
51.5%
54.3%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 13:58 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:02 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 07:20 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 08:43 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 18:45 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 17:28 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 03:39 | Neutral | Nick Paul |