Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Paul wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.4% vs Kuraly 49.7% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 81.9%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 67.8%
Neutral zone
Paul 57.6%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Paul
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Paul
Kuraly
Last 7: Paul 4-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
4
0
Paul
Kuraly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
3
Paul
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (753)
49.2% (901)
+4.6%
Power Play
58.9% (90)
68.2% (22)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (78)
49.8% (219)
-2.4%
On power play, Kuraly has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Paul shoots left. Kuraly is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Paul
Kuraly
Home
54.2% (450)
51.7% (603)
Away
53.3% (471)
47.3% (539)
By Period
Paul
Kuraly
P1
58.2%
50.9%
P2
50.6%
49.5%
P3
52.9%
49.1%
OT
50.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
49.6%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2023 | 2 | 05:51 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 1 | 16:07 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 06:26 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 3 | 17:47 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 3 | 17:36 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 2 | 11:58 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 1 | 05:59 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |