Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 20 meetings). Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Kuraly 50.3% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 26-16 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 80.8%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 62.4%
Neutral zone
Paul 60.7%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
Paul
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
16
(42 meetings)
26
16
Paul
Kuraly
Last 10: Paul 8-2 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
18
2
Paul
Kuraly
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
9
Paul
Kuraly
12 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Paul
Kuraly
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,796)
51.5% (5,141)
+1.0%
Power Play
56.5% (480)
56.0% (100)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (574)
44.2% (1,086)
+2.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Paul shoots left. Kuraly is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,102).
Home / Away
Paul
Kuraly
Home
52.7% (2,412)
51.9% (3,187)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
48.7% (3,141)
By Period
Paul
Kuraly
P1
53.9%
51.1%
P2
51.0%
49.9%
P3
52.0%
50.0%
OT
50.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
51.4%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | OT | 04:35 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 1, 2026 | OT | 00:18 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 15:34 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 15:10 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 15:04 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 14:16 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 11:01 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 10:28 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 13:38 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 19:02 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 17:53 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:49 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 09:49 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 09:32 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 03:22 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 16:51 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 16:36 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 05:56 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 05:46 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 11:25 | Offensive | Nick Paul |