Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Paul wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.9% vs Kuraly 48.4% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 78.8%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 79.8%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 50.5%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Paul
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Paul
Kuraly
Last 10: Paul 4-6 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
4
2
Paul
Kuraly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
3
Paul
Kuraly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Paul
Kuraly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (710)
49.4% (445)
+3.7%
Power Play
57.3% (199)
100.0% (3)
-42.7%
Penalty Kill
58.0% (69)
41.9% (117)
+16.1%
On power play, Kuraly has a +42.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Paul shoots left. Kuraly is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (354).
Home / Away
Paul
Kuraly
Home
56.0% (466)
49.2% (248)
Away
52.7% (512)
47.3% (317)
By Period
Paul
Kuraly
P1
57.2%
48.3%
P2
54.9%
44.7%
P3
51.5%
51.7%
Final 5 min
52.3%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 11:25 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 08:24 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 18:18 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 12:52 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 12:49 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 18:54 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 11:19 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 07:09 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 13:21 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 10:18 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 06:29 | Neutral | Nick Paul |