Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Jarvis on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.9% vs Jarvis 45.8% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarvis 55.6%
Defensive zone
Jarvis 79.5%
Neutral zone
Jarvis 69.0%
Result
Seth Jarvis favored at 70.5%
29.5%
70.5%
Paul
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Paul
Jarvis
Last 8: Paul 3-5 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
1
Paul
Jarvis
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarvis
1
4
Paul
Jarvis
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (710)
46.2% (171)
+6.9%
Power Play
57.3% (199)
51.9% (54)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
58.0% (69)
39.4% (127)
+18.6%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Paul is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (355).
Paul shoots left. Jarvis is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (303).
Home / Away
Paul
Jarvis
Home
56.0% (466)
46.1% (204)
Away
52.7% (512)
42.6% (148)
By Period
Paul
Jarvis
P1
57.2%
42.5%
P2
54.9%
42.9%
P3
51.5%
48.7%
Final 5 min
52.3%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 17:17 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 03:49 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 00:31 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 09:11 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 08:38 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 11:15 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 00:30 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 17:37 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |