Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +15.8% FO% edge overall. Paul wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — Jarvis shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 50.0% vs Jarvis 40.5% (+15.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 60.0%
Defensive zone
Paul 93.7%
Neutral zone
Paul 76.9%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 76.8%
76.8%
23.2%
Paul
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Paul
Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Jarvis
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Jarvis
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (666)
32.1% (81)
+16.7%
Power Play
53.8% (65)
38.6% (57)
+15.2%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (55)
28.6% (14)
+31.4%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Paul is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (243).
Paul shoots left. Jarvis is 29.6% vs left-shot opponents (115).
Home / Away
Paul
Jarvis
Home
49.7% (348)
40.6% (69)
Away
50.2% (438)
28.9% (83)
By Period
Paul
Jarvis
P1
51.0%
30.9%
P2
47.4%
30.6%
P3
51.5%
47.1%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
28.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
34.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2024 | 2 | 16:51 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 2 | 02:21 | Offensive | Nick Paul |