Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Lorentz 48.6% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 59.2%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 52.0%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 55.4%
Result
Steven Lorentz favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Paul
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Paul
Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lorentz
0
1
Paul
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,796)
48.9% (1,118)
+3.6%
Power Play
56.5% (480)
50.0% (26)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (574)
41.9% (86)
+4.8%
On power play, Paul has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Paul shoots left. Lorentz is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Home / Away
Paul
Lorentz
Home
52.7% (2,412)
50.8% (606)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
46.2% (624)
By Period
Paul
Lorentz
P1
53.9%
53.0%
P2
51.0%
46.8%
P3
52.0%
46.1%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2024 | 2 | 01:56 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |