Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Paul wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.4% vs Lorentz 48.2% (+5.8%)
Offensive zone
Paul 51.5%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 56.3%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 50.1%
Result
Steven Lorentz favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Paul
Lorentz
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (753)
48.3% (497)
+5.5%
Power Play
58.9% (90)
63.6% (11)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (78)
38.5% (39)
+8.9%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Paul shoots left. Lorentz is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Home / Away
Paul
Lorentz
Home
54.2% (450)
50.4% (238)
Away
53.3% (471)
46.0% (309)
By Period
Paul
Lorentz
P1
58.2%
49.1%
P2
50.6%
48.0%
P3
52.9%
47.2%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
49.6%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
47.9%