Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Paul wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 50.4% vs Lorentz 47.6% (+4.9%)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 73.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 72.8%
Neutral zone
Paul 58.9%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Paul
Lorentz
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (644)
46.5% (101)
+6.5%
Power Play
37.5% (24)
33.3% (3)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (177)
37.5% (8)
+5.4%
On even strength, Paul has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Paul is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Paul shoots left. Lorentz is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (62).
Home / Away
Paul
Lorentz
Home
52.5% (516)
49.1% (53)
Away
47.1% (329)
42.4% (59)
By Period
Paul
Lorentz
P1
47.6%
48.6%
P2
48.4%
36.7%
P3
54.5%
57.7%
Final 5 min
49.0%
41.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.5%