Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Paul wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.9% vs Lorentz 49.4% (+5.4%)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 51.2%
Defensive zone
Paul 52.2%
Neutral zone
Paul 51.3%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Paul
Lorentz
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (710)
48.9% (135)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
58.0% (69)
50.0% (4)
+8.0%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Paul shoots left. Lorentz is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (97).
Home / Away
Paul
Lorentz
Home
56.0% (466)
50.7% (75)
Away
52.7% (512)
46.9% (64)
By Period
Paul
Lorentz
P1
57.2%
60.0%
P2
54.9%
46.3%
P3
51.5%
44.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.9%