Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.4% vs 51.0%). Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 50.4% vs Stamkos 50.9% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 65.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 76.6%
Neutral zone
Paul 59.9%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Paul
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Paul
Stamkos
Last 10: Paul 3-7 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
7
Paul
Stamkos
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
1
Paul
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (644)
49.3% (789)
+3.7%
Power Play
37.5% (24)
56.9% (181)
-19.4%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (177)
54.1% (98)
-11.2%
On power play, Stamkos has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Paul is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (386).
Paul shoots left. Stamkos is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (798).
Home / Away
Paul
Stamkos
Home
52.5% (516)
52.0% (512)
Away
47.1% (329)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Paul
Stamkos
P1
47.6%
42.1%
P2
48.4%
56.4%
P3
54.5%
53.7%
OT
100.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
49.0%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2022 | 2 | 04:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 1 | 15:56 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 1 | 03:43 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 16:10 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 14:10 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 08:03 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 03:23 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 03:12 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 00:52 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |