Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Paul wins 45.4% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 51.0% vs Seguin 57.4% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 61.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 67.0%
Neutral zone
Paul 64.1%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
Paul
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Paul
Seguin
Last 6: Paul 1-5 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
3
Paul
Seguin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
2
Paul
Seguin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (312)
59.6% (736)
-6.1%
Power Play
53.8% (26)
61.5% (65)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
29.4% (34)
47.6% (124)
-18.2%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Paul is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (163).
Paul shoots left. Seguin is 59.1% vs left-shot opponents (672).
Home / Away
Paul
Seguin
Home
45.8% (153)
60.1% (461)
Away
55.0% (220)
56.3% (464)
By Period
Paul
Seguin
P1
55.9%
59.1%
P2
48.9%
58.9%
P3
50.0%
57.3%
OT
0.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
45.7%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
51.2%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
58.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2020 | 3 | 11:12 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 2 | 17:50 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 1 | 18:40 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 21, 2019 | 3 | 12:20 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 21, 2019 | 3 | 10:20 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 21, 2019 | 3 | 00:59 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |