Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 42.2% vs Schmaltz 41.2% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 56.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 70.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 61.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 61.7%
61.7%
38.3%
McDavid
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
McDavid
Schmaltz
Last 9: McDavid 7-2 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
Schmaltz
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Schmaltz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Schmaltz
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (855)
39.5% (658)
+1.9%
Power Play
47.8% (23)
41.3% (92)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
35.5% (31)
45.1% (51)
-9.6%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. McDavid is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (335).
McDavid shoots left. Schmaltz is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (528).
Home / Away
McDavid
Schmaltz
Home
42.8% (451)
40.8% (424)
Away
40.0% (458)
39.3% (377)
By Period
McDavid
Schmaltz
P1
38.0%
38.4%
P2
44.9%
40.7%
P3
41.7%
41.0%
OT
20.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
42.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
41.4%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
40.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 09:52 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 19:50 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 2 | 00:54 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 1 | 19:05 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 1 | 11:07 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 1 | 07:31 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 1 | 03:51 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 19, 2017 | 2 | 19:35 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 19, 2017 | 1 | 17:18 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |